Bernie Sanders is cleaning up when it comes to first quarter fundraising in the massive Dem primary. He’s leading the gigantic pack of contenders by a big chunk of change. But in polling against President Trump? Not so much.
The latest numbers from Rasmussen show him losing in a hypothetical match-up. The nation survey, the results of which were posted on Friday, show Trump knocking down Sanders 47% to 44% among likely voters. That’s a three percent lead in a poll with a 1.5% margin of error. (9% were undecided.)
Here’s the exact wording of the question: “If the presidential race in 2020 was between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for?”
On the other hand, in another hypothetical match-up – one that is slightly more hypothetical even if you take into account the lack of a formal announcement – Rasmussen finds a similar lead, but for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. In that one, the margin is 49% for Biden over 44% for Trump.
So a larger 5-point lead for Biden over Trump than the three pointer for Trump over Sanders.
Rasmussen writes of the match-ups they are polling:
Given the large number of candidates expected to enter the race for next year’s Democratic nomination, Rasmussen Reports has opted to run a series of matchups over two-week cycles as the contest continues to develop. These longer cycles mean the matchup findings will be based on 5,000 respondents rather than the usual 1,000 for our regular surveys, and they lower the margin of error.
The survey of 5,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 31-April 4 and April 7-11, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
In a separate poll released on Friday, Muhlenberg College/Morning Call’s survey on the Pennsylvania Democratic primary finds Biden beating Sanders, too. And Sanders ahead of the rest of the pack of candidates who have actually declared.
Combined with the abysmal fundraising for Democrats so far, it’s looking like a rough primary and election no matter how you slice it.
Then again, polls can always change. Can’t they, Secretary Clinton?