Kavanaugh effect puts Heller over-the-top in Nevada

Dean Heller, In The News, Jacky Rosen, Nevada, the 2018 Midterm Elections

A combination of the dastardly deeds by Democrats against Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Trump’s rally in Nevada may have pushed Republican incumbent Senator Dean Heller into the lead for his Nevada Senate seat.

A new NBC News/Marist poll puts Heller over his Democratic rival, Jacky Rosen, by 2 points. While the lead is within in the margin of error, it is a 6-point flip from a poll taken before the Kavanaugh mess had reached critical mass.

Heller voted “yes” on Kavanaugh’s confirmation while Rosen joined a Democratic party letter opposing the now-seated Supreme Court Justice. While Heller voted to confirm a qualified and respected jurist, Rosen just did what was politically expedient.

Recent polling shows that the ‘Kavanaugh effect’ may be very real.

Some say that President Trump’s September rally in Las Vegas moved the needle, but polling just after the rally, and before the mainstream media and Senate Democrats took the Kavanaugh confirmation to nuclear status, shows something different.

The rally was held on September 20, and leading up to that rally, a Gravis poll showed Rosen with a 2-point advantage. The first poll after the rally, showed Rosen up 4 points.  The last poll in the grouping was taken during the height of the partisan-led hit-job on Brett Kavanaugh and it shows the obvious shift to Heller.

The timing of the polls doesn’t kill the effect that Trump’s appearance and endorsement may have had in pushing Heller to the top, it just makes it harder to credit.

Those three polls indicate that the Kavanaugh effect may be real, substantial and could be the one thing that kills the supposed blue wave in November.

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